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ML / Quant Intelligence

Decision quality is measured. Not assumed.

Every scoring model is backtested on historical data and validated on out-of-sample windows across multiple horizons and market regimes.

No fitted hindsight. No assumed accuracy. Only measured performance.

Backtested  ·  Out-of-sample  ·  Regime-tested
Data universe

Built on a continuous, multi-domain data universe.

Exnet models operate on a unified data layer combining market, futures, portfolio, client, macro, ESG, and live news inputs. Each signal is evaluated in context — not in isolation.

Signals are generated from interactions across these domains — not from isolated indicators.
Data universe · continuous ingest 6 domains
01Market dataPrices, volatility surfaces, liquidity, spreads, futures curves, cross-asset signals
02Portfolio statePositions, allocation drift, factor exposure, concentration, turnover
03Client contextMandates, risk tolerance, horizon, withdrawals, restrictions
04Macro regimeRates, inflation, liquidity conditions, regime shifts
05ESG, events & newsControversies, SBTi alignment, holdings-level risks, live news signals
06Behaviour & flowsContribution patterns, timing, account activity, client reactions
streaming · normalised · context-joined
Model architecture

Purpose-built models for financial decision systems.

Exnet does not rely on a single model or static methodology.

Different signals require different modelling approaches — depending on data structure, time horizon, and decision type.

The platform combines multiple model classes to generate robust, context-aware signals rather than isolated predictions.

Each model is selected, validated, and continuously evaluated based on decision outcomes — not theoretical fit.

No single model drives a decision. The system does.

Model selection is dynamic — not fixed at deployment.
Model stack · orchestrated
01 Gradient-based models Cross-sectional ranking and probability scoring → allocation drift, relative value, signal ranking
02 Time-series models Temporal dynamics and regime sensitivity → momentum persistence, volatility shifts
03 Sequence / deep models Behavioural and sequential pattern detection → flows, reactions, timing
04 Policy & constraint layer Mandates, suitability, execution constraints → ensures decisions are valid, not just optimal
Models are composed into a decision system — not exposed as outputs.
Compute layer

Real-time model computation. Not batch analytics.

Exnet operates on a continuous compute layer — not periodic model runs.

Signals are generated, scored, and updated as underlying data changes across markets, portfolios, client behaviour, and macro conditions.

Models are not executed in isolation or on fixed schedules. They are recomputed dynamically as part of a live decision system.

  • Continuous signal updates as conditions evolve
  • Immediate re-ranking of decisions based on new information
  • Consistent alignment between model outputs and current market state

Exnet integrates high-performance compute infrastructure, including GPU acceleration and distributed processing, to support real-time evaluation across thousands of signals simultaneously.

Decisions are computed — not refreshed.

Signals are recomputed continuously as inputs change — not periodically refreshed.
Real-time compute · distributed
Live data streams
Market · futures · portfolio · client · macro · news
Signal ingestion
Normalised · context-joined · continuously updated
Model execution layer
Parallel evaluation across model classes · GPU accelerated
Signal scoring
Probability · impact · urgency · confidence
Decision routing
Rebalance · allocate · monitor · trigger workflows
Powered by high-performance compute infrastructure including GPU acceleration (e.g. NVIDIA architecture)
Model design

Models produce decisions, not predictions.

Each model produces structured scores that map directly to a decision — not a dashboard. Every output is structured, ranked, and routed.

The scoring surface shows one signal resolved through the full decision path — from raw drivers to production workflow.

Live scoring surface · decision object #4821 · allocation-drift
Signal
Allocation drift
Universe: Balanced portfolios
Live model
Updated 44m ago · 60d horizon
Scores
Probability 0.91
Urgency high
Impact medium
Confidence 0.88
Decision
Route Review rebalance
AUM at risk 10,748 bps
Expected effect Reduce unintended risk
Horizon 60d
Routed to workflow
exnet · decision engine live
ML / Quant Intelligence

Signals are ranked. Decisions are proven.

Exnet converts continuous data into ranked signals — scored by probability, impact, and confidence.

Each signal is validated on forward data before deployment. Not backtested in hindsight — measured across time, regimes, and real decision windows.

  • Signals ranked by probability, impact, confidence
  • Tested across 30 / 60 / 100 day horizons
  • Out-of-sample validation (no lookahead bias)
  • Performance tracked per signal, not averages
What you see is not a model output — it is a measured decision.
Exnet Top Signals — ranked decisions with confidence, accuracy, and performance metrics
Top signals
exnet · signal playbook · 60d horizon live
Performance

Performance is tracked at the signal level.

Exnet evaluates model performance based on decision outcomes, not statistical fit. Each signal is measured across time horizons, market regimes, and forward test windows.

  • Accuracy (directional correctness)
  • Win rate (successful outcomes)
  • Confidence calibration
  • Drawdown and downside risk
  • Return impact and CAGR
Performance is monitored live — not retroactively reported.
Validation

Out-of-sample by design.

Every model is tested on forward data — not fitted to history. Performance is evaluated across time, across regimes, and across decision horizons before deployment.

  • Rolling time splits (forward testing)
  • Multi-horizon evaluation (30 / 60 / 100 days)
  • Regime-aware validation (volatility, macro shifts)
  • Per-signal performance tracking
Models are promoted to production only after consistent forward performance.
Model performance / Out-of-sample ✓ Validated
Performance across decision horizons
  30d 60d 100d
Accuracy 0.68 0.72 0.76
Confidence 0.74 0.78 0.81
Win rate 0.58 0.61 0.64
Directional 0.71 0.75 0.79
Measured on forward test windows. No fitted hindsight.
Key metrics
Accuracy76%
Directional accuracy79%
Recall71%
Mean confidence0.81
Win rate64%
Profit %18.4%
CAGR11.2%
Validation framework rolling splits · 30/60/100d horizons · regime tested · out-of-sample only
Explainability

Every signal is explainable.

Each recommendation is supported by its primary drivers across technical, macro, and behavioural signals.

Signals are not black-box outputs — they are ranked, attributed, and auditable.

From signal to decision. Fully measured.

Exnet connects model outputs directly to execution workflows. Signals are prioritised, validated, and routed — with full visibility into why a decision exists and how it performs over time.

Not insights. Not alerts. Execution-ready decisions with measured outcomes.